One of the traditional instruments of protection against devaluation is gold. At the moment, according to official statistics, gold expensive. During the same year, 1.5 gold went up by 32.5%. If at the end of 2006, 1 g of gold was worth 522.46 roubles., At the beginning of July 2008 its price was 692.62 rubles. However, if we recall that before the year is not gold was measured in rubles and the ruble in grams of gold, it becomes clear that the ruble fell on the gold.
At first glance, it turns out that gold expensive faster inflationary growth. However, inflation takes into account all goods and services of the Russian Federation. For the ordinary citizen is much more important increases in the price of a set of goods and services, which he enjoyed himself. And in this sense, gold is thus a single measure of the cost of making any.
in grams of gold.
The first thing you will notice - this fall an average cost of 1 square. m Moscow housing on the basis of June. However, it might seem that the general dynamics of the average cost of 1 square. m of housing in Moscow, expressed in grams of gold, weakly coincides with the dynamics index
, Which has traditionally expresses
.
However, with a larger time scale, it is clear that all the ups and downs that have taken place in the history of Moscow's housing price index, are also present in the history of the average cost of 1 square. m of housing in Moscow, expressed in grams of gold.
Throughout history, a Moscow real estate, since 2000 the prices of housing, both in gold, and in the U.S. grew about the same. In the sense that at a time when growth in real estate prices in dollars intensified, and it intensified in grams of gold. Since July 2000 the real estate market as life in dollar terms, and in gold. And the first period of a braking growth rate of dollar-denominated prices, marked by falling
Expressed in grams of gold. This is the period from January to July 2002, when prices for the six months rose by only 3%. During this time the real estate equivalent of gold fell by 13%. The same pattern was observed in 2004. Then 1 sq. km. m of housing in Moscow from July 2004 to January 2005 grew by only 3 dollars, that is, prices stood. And in gold prices fell by 10%. Finally sharp surge in prices last in 2006 correction ended in 2007, both in gold and dollars.
Remarkably, in this case that any change in the dynamics of Moscow's housing price index in advance manifested in the dynamics of the average cost of 1 square. m of housing in Moscow, expressed in grams of gold. This was particularly noticeable in 2007. If dollar prices
in the first quarter just stood, the gold she had already lost more in the value of 6%. In 2004, housing only in dollar terms stood, and gold fell by 2%.
In doing so, of course, there may be suspicion that these enhance arise solely through the dynamics of change in the value of gold. But it's not strictly true.
In appreciation of gold, should formally expensive real estate in gold equivalent and vice versa. However, neither about one of the periods when the real estate expensive, we can not say that during this time gold deshevelo. Note only the brightest of them. Thus, from July 2000 to January 2002 in real estate gold went up by 41% and gold during this time not only cheaper, but went up by 3%. The subsequent fall in January 2002 in real estate prices in gold just can not be linked to rising gold prices, as well as gold during this period went up by 18% and
fell only by 10%. It should be remembered that cheaper and appreciation is measured in different percentages. As a result, if the real estate appreciation of gold fell proportionately, the price of housing in gold would have to fall at least 15%.
Finally, the ups in real estate prices in gold in 2004 and 2006 did not affect the dynamics of the value of gold that, rather than deshevet went. And while the fall in 2004 and 2007 in house prices, denominated in gold, the value of gold stood at all. This becomes even more remarkable when considering the dynamics of an annual comparative value of gold and the average price of 1 square. m of housing in Moscow, expressed in grams of gold.
Thus, the price of gold only aggravates and, in fact, advance identifies new trends in the real estate market. And it affects not only the dynamics
. One of the main topics, recently became the leader in the citation in the media, became a crisis that erupted at the most expensive housing market in the world - London. Noteworthy in this sense, the fact that when housing prices in dollars still went up, in gold, they are already actively declining.
With that in the entire Western world desheveet real estate, and in Russia - expensive, as has been written "
", Moscow has become the most expensive housing Who Was Well Ahead even London. It happened in May. Over the past month gap, looking at prices in U.S. dollars, increased both by price increases at the Moscow housing, and by cheaper housing in London. However, when considering the price of housing, expressed in grams of gold, it becomes clear that the Moscow real estate market stabilization period began in May-June 2008, which largely coincide with the projections
.
As has been shown above, and take-offs fall in house prices, expressed in grams of gold, in the history of the Moscow real estate market since 2000 have always been precursors corresponding change in the dollar prices of real estate. From this we can say that the dollar prices also expects in the coming months, an estimated "
", Decline.
